Analyzing the core pain points and indicating the implementation path of technological change will help lithium battery manufacturers gain competitive advantages with advanced lithium battery process technology, and ultimately achieve the goal of “high consistency, high efficiency, high yield, low cost, and low energy consumption”.
As we all know, electrification is one of the future development trends of the automotive industry. Driven by the large-scale growth in demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, the demand for lithium batteries will increase from 765GWh in 2022 to 4735GWh in 2030, with a market size of more than 3 trillion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 25.6%.
We have noticed that with the rapid growth of power battery demand, production capacity has entered a peak period of expansion, and process technology has been rapidly iterating. However, the pain points of lithium batteries in different stages of the process are still obvious. Therefore, it is extremely important to explore the process difficulties and pain points of the current lithium battery process and describe the solution path.
Based on in-depth interviews with process experts in the power battery industry, we have summarized the integration of lithium battery processes with cutting-edge technologies such as simulation technology, laser technology, visual technology, sensor technology, and AI technology, which have improved the technology of equipment integration, environmental protection and energy saving, high speed, and digitalization. We believe that the development of semi-solid and all-solid-state technologies also has a positive impact on the promotion of battery process technology.
Looking at the global new energy policy, it is not difficult to find that the transportation industry is currently the top three areas of carbon emissions (21% globally, 37% in the United States and 31% in the European Union respectively). The global new energy policy guides the transportation industry to reduce carbon emissions, and the development of lithium batteries is closely related to national energy security.
With the support of governments of various countries, new energy vehicles and energy storage have entered the fast lane and become a huge driving force for the growth of lithium batteries. We estimate that by 2030, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States and Europe will reach 6.37 million and 13.64 million respectively, and the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 37.73 million; by 2030, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the United States and Europe will reach 99GW and 48GW respectively, and the global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will reach 358GW.From the perspective of the global demand for lithium batteries, the global lithium battery market demand will reach 1515GWh in 2025, and the global demand is expected to reach 4735GWh in 2030, with a 5-year compound growth rate of 25.6%.
Among the top ten companies in the global power battery installed capacity ranking in 2021, China occupies 6 seats, accounting for a total of 49% of the installed capacity, and the remaining 4 companies are from Japan and South Korea. In fact, regions outside China, Japan and South Korea are currently facing great challenges and bottlenecks in building lithium battery production capacity. The main reason is that these regions lack technical foundation, imperfect industrial chain, shortage of core talents and insufficient construction experience. Looking back at the development of China’s lithium battery industry in the past five years, the rapid increase in lithium battery production capacity has further consolidated China’s important position in the global lithium battery industry. Therefore, the development of China’s lithium battery industry is related to the global trend.
