In recent years, solid-state battery technology breakthroughs, the major head of battery factories are accelerating the layout of solid-state battery production lines, and continue to usher in the industrial end of the verification. ① technology from generalization to focus, sulfide technology route is expected to become the mainstream direction; ② major car manufacturers continue to layout solid-state battery technology, the industry ushered in a major breakthrough on the eve of dawn; ③ after 24 years of subsidies, a new round of solid-state battery industry subsidies are expected to land; ④ core equipment pilot line small batch delivery.
Currently liquid battery general energy density in the 300Wh/kg level, has been widely used in new energy vehicles and other scenes, but the existing battery system in emerging scenes such as eVTOL, robotics and other areas of application there are still greater restrictions, solid-state battery technology breakthroughs are expected to greatly solve the emerging industry, such as insufficient energy density of batteries and other pain points.
Equipment side, the recent market consensus continues to improve. We will summarize a few of the common problems encountered in the summary:
- Process route convergence and certainty. From the current situation, the material system of the sulfide route and electrode dry process has gradually become the mainstream and consensus. The convergence of technology for the industry to break the biggest obstacles to the development of the second basis of “equipment first” consensus continues to improve, equipment investment will also be the future of solid state investment is the most prioritized link.
2. the certainty of equipment manufacturers. There are many investors worried about solid state on the original process system and equipment company subversion, compared to liquid and solid state equipment players, can clearly see the continuation of the competitiveness of equipment manufacturers, one is to exclude foreign equipment, there is no technology and cost advantages, the second is the equipment company has experienced a complete industry cycle has shrunken the circle, the current solid state core company that is the original liquid system, to pilot, for example, the current entire line of solid state equipment Has matured and shipments, covering the dry – stacked – isostatic pressure – into the core process, the future development of solid state is still the most beneficial to the current company, the choice of subject matter is very clear.
3. equipment flexibility. New technology will have many possibilities and assumptions measured in advance, one is the amount of value of the equipment, the current pilot level in 3-4 billion, the future according to the amount of 200 million after the maturity of the calculation, higher than liquid, taking into account the cost reduction, in line with the industrial trend; two is the total amount of expansion, if you consider the solid state maturity of the release, optimistically expected to replace the whole market half of the production capacity in 30 years, while taking the average of 3 years, all replace the liquid, is expected to increase the expansion of production per year up to 500gwh or more (peak liquid one year expansion to reach 600-700gwh), corresponding to the full equipment market is 100 billion magnitude, the equipment company in terms of strength over the last round.
4. sub-links to see the elasticity. First, the total number of angles, the whole link to benefit, the second is divided into the former in the back of the road in terms of the changes in the front > in the middle of the road > back of the road, corresponding to a single link, such as roller pressure unit value of the volume of 3x, the middle of the road, such as the hydrostatic pressure of 0 to 1, stacked into the mainstream, the back of the road upgraded to the high pressure into the capacity, are the most obvious link to enhance the value of the volume. Corresponding to Xinyu people, Nako, Mann, and other front-channel to maximize the benefit, to the pilot, win-win, Li Yuan Heng, and other full line benefit.
Material side, the current all-solid-state battery technology route is gradually converging. This week we focus on exchanges with solid state battery related enterprises, equipment companies actively layout dry electrode equipment, isostatic pressure equipment, solid-solid interface contact, high cost of the material side of the problem of constraints on industrialization. We believe that the sulfide electrolyte is the core incremental solid-state battery, lithium metal anode is expected to become the ultimate route. In addition, the lithium sulfide and sulfide solid state battery technology conference was held in Suzhou on June 24-25, focusing on solid state battery plate sulfide electrolyte and lithium metal anode link.
1. sulfide electrolyte:
Mainstream technology routes include the solid-phase method, the liquid-phase method, and the CVD method. Solid-phase method has better performance, but higher production costs; the liquid-phase method has lower production costs, but the solvent is difficult to remove, which may affect the ionic conductivity; the CVD method is more costly, and efficiency needs to be improved. At present, the cost of lithium sulfide is up to several million yuan/ton or more; the future goal of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is to reduce it to 300,000 yuan/ton or less. Cost reduction is expected to continue to promote the acceleration of industrialization. There are new research materials, Guanghua Science and Technology using the solid-phase method, tenci materials, Huasheng Lithium using the liquid-phase method, Xia Tungsten New Energy using the CVD method.
Last year, the industry cut to the sulfide route, which is a relatively significant change, and the policy side of the force promoted it. This year, the main enterprises have begun to really increase solid state investment, taking small steps to run a lot of technology iterations.
2. lithium metal anode:
Mainstream technology routes include calendaring and vaporization. Calendering method requires less environmental security, cost and efficiency advantages, but the uniformity and leveling degree is not good, currently can be realized calendering to 20 micron thickness; evaporation method requires higher environmental security, can be achieved on the thickness of the precise control, but the cost is high, low efficiency. Tiantie Technology adopts calendering method, and Xinjie Energy has reached a cooperation, is expected to be the first to realize the application in the field of eVTOL; Yinglian shares using evaporation method, the depth of the bonding of Aifa Tech equipment.
